08/08/ · While the white-colored swan specimens live in the northern hemisphere, the dark ones only inhabit Australia. Aside from the obvious difference in their plumage's color, the black swan's beak is red with a white tip, while the white swan's is orange with a black tip. Besides having different colored plumage, black swans and white swans also Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins 17/06/ · Mr Taleb became famous after the financial crash (which was a Black Swan itself) and his book made it to the top of the bestsellers' list (the success of his book is a Black Swan also). After reading a part of the book I started thinking about a practical way to benefit from Black Swans and reduce their disastrous effects in a trading A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict; the term was popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer and former Wall Street trade
Differences between Black and White Swans - My Animals
In the market a Black Swan is a long term trend that can either bring you big profits if you go with it or put you out of trading if you go against it. I was first introduced to this concept when I came across a bestseller book called "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by a certain author called Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Mr Taleb became famous after the financial crash which was a Black Swan itself and his book made it to the top of the bestsellers' list the success of his book is a Black Swan also.
After reading a part of the book I started thinking about a practical way to benefit from Black Swans and reduce their disastrous effects in a trading environment. I came finally to make this system that can put the investors using it in the way of Black Swans to benefit from them when they happen, black swan forex and white swan. About big trends : the system does not use a Take Profit limit in order to stay open to large profits, when a big trend black swan forex and white swan caught you want to follow it until it's over.
What you can expect from this black swan forex and white swan is sustainable growth on the long term, I wouldn't be fooled by results of less than 7 years. This is the most important section about this trading system, black swan forex and white swan.
I will tell you a few things NOT TO EXPECT from this system : This system will NOT make you rich in short notice, I don't exclude the possibility of doubling your investments in one year but it is very unlikely to happen, black swan forex and white swan. This system will not fool you with short term results that will black swan forex and white swan blow up in massive losses.
This system does not use any sort of mathematical models or dogmas built over statistics. How to predict a Black Swan. The EA presented here does not try to predict Black Swans since they are unpredictablebut to be ready for them when they happen. Blowup : you can make small gains over time by taking big risks, and when a Black Swan happens you loose a lot, may be all of your initial investments.
For you the Black Swan is over when your investments are totally consumed. Bleed : you will be taking small losses over time and when a Black Swan occurs you benefit from it, as opposing to the Blowup part there are no limits to how much profits a Black Swan can make for you.
I am in the automatic trading for a few years now, I have came across many many EAs that would give you astonishing results backtesting or live tradingbut after a while they make BIG losses.
another year and it looks even better, some people might jump on this system that looks like a miracle! few months later : Oops! Just before doubling the initial investments the system blew up.
The bottom line is : similar systems eventually blowup. What you just saw is similar to what happened to many investment funds over history, entire banks went bankrupt for taking large risks and believing too much in statistics and mathematical models. This is the type of strategies that - on the long term - make investors wish they have just spent their money another way.
This approach is about taking small risks and waiting for Black Swans to make big profits out of them. I think the choice of a strategy of loosing is the most important aspect of trading, because after all you want to win, but also you want to keep your investments.
Your system is not catching the black swans. It is just a plain old vanilla trend-catcher by first letting yourself bleed to death by the whipsaws while waiting for a big trend to come, hopefully and eventually. Chinese torturers has a name for it. Death By A Thousand Cuts. You definitely need a very very deep pocket and finally a therapist to get you out of depression.
Nick leeson of Baring bank in Singapore eventually broke the bank by following this system, black swan forex and white swan. He lost only a couple of billion quids trading Nikkei and ended up 5 years in jail.
The dead sure way to make a million bucks out of the market by this system is to start with a couple of millions. why would anyone wait out the years it takes for a single black swan event to occur just to monopolize on that once in a decade rare opportunity? You want to build in safeguards circuit breakers, just as the establishment uses to minimize the damage black swans can cause, but to create a strategy that attempts to truly wait out the markets in hopes of catching the next one in the coming decade just seems like a fool's errand to me.
And Eurotrader is right, this system appears no different than a trend-trader that tries to catch the big moves while bleeding during the periods of sideways trading. You don't need to call them black swans.
It's common-or-garden trend following with a layer of Nassim Taleb icing to make it look more appetising and interesting. It's like the systems which throw around the terms "neural networks" and "artificial intelligence" just because they sound good and clever, black swan forex and white swan. Let's pick on one of the more obscure statements: "Mr Taleb became famous after the financial crash". In fact, Taleb was more than moderately well-known long before htm albeit Gladwell himself wasn't remotely as famous and followed then as he is now.
Is trend following technique History? One of my favorite stories is the one where the two Traders bet each other about whether or not someone could be taught to become a successful trader, black swan forex and white swan. The guy who won the bet was able to teach regular people how to follow trend following techniques and they became some well know traders.
Now-a-Days seems everyone is more concerned about Pricing Models black swan forex and white swan everything. I guess trading really is a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy this should get some people going :. Trend following is real and people make lots of money invoking trend following strategies. Consider that if all any of us were interested in was simply making more money from our current equity then we'd just buy a government backed bank CD and sit back to drink margarita's all day.
What compels us to this industry is the desire to make even more money from our current equity. Ideally all of us are busy at work devising cleverer and cleverer trading schemes to maximize our Risk Adjusted Return on Capital RAROC. Trying to catch the falling knife constantly shorting an otherwise bullish trending market in the hopes of catching a once-in-a-decade fundamental market reversal typically progenitored by the black swan event does not strike me as a superior RAROC approach.
Sticking somewhat to the original topic, Taleb has some interesting criticisms of VaR, which is a component of RAROC. However, you have to get beyond the fact that he's got a twitchy finger on the rhetorical trigger. It certainly doesn't appear to make much sense if you try to do it with spot forex. You want something black swan forex and white swan more asymmetric - such as the baskets of options which Gladwell describes Taleb as trading.
You agree to website policy and terms of use, black swan forex and white swan. Forum Sections Forum Market Signals Freelance Quotes WebTerminal Calendar VPS Articles CodeBase Documentation About Log in Create an account. English Русский 中文 Español Português 日本語 Deutsch 한국어. value :"" ; if document. Trading Black Swans in Forex. New comment. What is a Black Swan : A Black Swan is an unpredictable event that carries massive consequences.
What this system does What it does basically is making small losses and small profits until it catches a long trend. Read the next part what the system does not is more important than what it actually does. What this system does not This is the most important section about this trading system. How to predict a Black Swan The first property of a Black Swan is that it is unpredictable. For him there are two ways of loosing money and I don't know a third way for that matter : Blowup : you can make small gains over time by taking big risks, and when a Black Swan happens you loose a lot, may be all of your initial investments.
Blowup : I am in the automatic trading for a few years now, I have came across many many EAs that would give you astonishing results backtesting or live tradingbut after a while they make BIG losses. Now let's take a look at another approach to loosing and winning money.
Bleed : This approach is about taking small risks and waiting for Black Swans to make big profits out of them. It is about the choice between one of two trading strategies : - Taking small risks with no upper limit of profits, looking for long term results - Taking considerable risks with an illusion of success that would fade into big losses, black swan forex and white swan.
I attached statements of backtesting so that you can look at the Black Swans the system caught. Best of wishes. Files: statements.
rar kb. Percentage Based Money Management, black swan forex and white swan. EA with MM request? Deviator - correlation strategy, signal Nims, Renko Ashi Scalping NuB Question: Make Demo The Legend of The. mq4 i think i've found Who'd have thought such. Thank you for explaining this system. This sure would have made a black swan forex and white swan Article. Posting here like this it's gonna get allot of negative comments. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing; depends on what you're trying to accomplish.
Well it's not a revolutionary concept. Sound like good old trend following to me. For those people not familiar with such a system, you did a good job introducing it to them.
I Double My Account Wrong Values Developing YOUR Heart-Mind Trading. ubzen : Posting here like this it's gonna get allot of negative comments. Is There Any Strategy? NeverQuit's Trading Journal Success stories of real Forex Trading is not. ubzen : One of my favorite stories is the one where the two Traders bet each other about whether or not someone could be taught to become a successful trader.
Forex News from InstaForex New EA - "Predator" Share your BEST entry. Thanks JJC, I read New yorker regularly, but I missed that BLOWINGUP article. Thanks again. Most frequent range of The ultimate indicator REVERSE - IMPULSE System.
Black Swan - Odile appears
, time: 3:05Inside the Forex Market: Searching for Black Swans? - Action Forex
11/07/ · Inside the Forex Market: Searching for Black Swans? By the phrase comes from the belief in the Western world that all swans are white. This belief was Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins 12/06/ · A black swan event is one which is impossible to predict and is negative. So strong is this kind of event, because of the financial losses which usually follow, that the market has given a name to it! Whereas white swans are seen as a paragon of beauty and 22/03/ · Black Swan: A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to
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